The Indian economy can contract by 7.7 per cent in current financial year ending on March 31 and the growth could be 11 per cent in the next financial year, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The contraction in FY21 is mainly due to coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and the visible damage caused by the subsequent countrywide lockdown to contain it. The survey unveiled two days before the Union Budget is broadly in line with forecasts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which has said it expected the country's GDP to contract by 7.5 per cent in the year ending March 31.
The manufacturing sector during the fourth quarter recorded a growth rate of 9.3 per cent while the farm sector grew at 2.3 per cent.
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
BSE-listed companies' market capitalisation reached Rs 197.7 trillion on January 21, against India's nominal GDP of Rs 190 trillion during 12 months ended December 2020.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her sixth straight Budget ahead of the Parliamentary elections, matching the record of former Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Sitharaman in her pre-election Budget, which technically is a vote on account and popularly termed an interim Budget, will seek Parliament's nod for a grant in advance to meet the central government's essential expenditure for the first four months of the new fiscal year that starts in April. A new government elected after the April/May general elections will present the full Budget, likely in July.
The economy has shown sharp resilience in the past and has also bounced back in good time. We could hence expect a similar trajectory next year, observes Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
Macroeconomic management is usually a lot more comfortable with lower fiscal deficits. The sooner we get there, the better for the economy, says former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India Shankar Acharya.
The estimates of national income and growth do not pass the 'smell test'.
I suggest we build a Vigyan Mandir (Temple of Science) with the ambience of a place of worship, so that it becomes a destination for pilgrims. We should embed on its walls bronze plaques describing each scientist mentioned here along with about a dozen of our ancient mathematicians, recommends Professor Kalyan Singhal, historian of science and technology.
India's economic growth slowed to 3.1 per cent in January-March and to an 11-year low of 4.2 per cent for the full fiscal 2019-20 amid a drop in consumption and investment. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stood at 5.7 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018-19, according to data released by National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday.
Improved performance of manufacturing, services and trade sectors helped boost GDP
NSO has pegged economic growth at 5 per cent in 2019-20 in its second advance estimates.
The income tax department estimates total collection to be between Rs 10.5 trillion and Rs 10.7 trillion against the revised target of Rs 11.7 trillion.
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Cumulatively for the first two quarters till now, the advance tax collections from the Mumbai zone, which contributes over a third of the income tax collections nationally, have grown 11 per cent, the official said.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
Collectively, the pack of 12 has posted a 50 per cent rise in profits -- Rs 25,685 crore. On a quarter-on-quarter basis (that is, September over June), the rise is 68 per cent. Public sector banks have never had such a stellar performance, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India has purchased 500 million doses of the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine candidate, one billion from the United States company Novavax and 100 million doses of the Sputnik V candidate from Russia's Gamaleya Research Institute, according to the US-based Duke University Global Health Innovation Center.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the GDP growth forecast at 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal but cautioned that the economic recovery is not yet strong enough to be self-sustaining and durable.
Against a turbulent and uncertain background, Budget 2017-18 hewed a steady, forward-looking course, says Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the government.
Poor rainfall has also depleted water reservoirs levels, which is likely to impact the winter crops.
The hit to economic activity will be mostly confined to the first quarter. And a third wave, if it materialises, is unlikely to be hugely disruptive for the economy, predicts T T Ram Mohan.
If the earnings in the first quarter of the current financial year are an indication, most banks, particularly those majority-owned by the government, have fared well, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Risk aversion is currently a dominant depressant to economic recovery, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
'In 2016, we had De-Mon and in 2017, we had GST.' 'The combined impact of these two started showing up in 2019 and 2020.' 'COVID-19 only added insult to injury.'
Of the seven surveys presented under Modi govt, predictions of three were quite close to the actual GDP growth rate, one saw the base year change in between, but the last three were way off the mark.
Naveen Kukreja explains the finer points to keep in mind while planning for your retirement.
Budget has already bombed at the box office and passing it without a revisit will be a mockery of the exercise though any modification may be short lived and perfunctory, observes V Ranganathan.
India grew at 7.6% in 2015-16 and at 7.2% in 2014-15.
Why do Innovation Revolutions happen outside India, asks Ajit Balakrishnan.
News of all that transpired on and off the football field
IDS-2 and raids to uncover black money stash keep receipts flowing
Sensex climbs higher at close, bluechip stocks in focus.
There were apprehensions in the SII about rival Bharat Biotech's 'indigenous' tag, opening up shortcuts for it. One senior person, who was very familiar with the sector, told me, 'The message has gone out from the very top. Somani (V G Somani -- drug controller general of India) has told me "Bharat ka karna hai".' A fascinating excerpt from Abantika Ghosh's Billions Under Lockdown: The Inside Story Of India's Fight Against COVID-19.
With his eye on next year's Party Congress, Xi Jinping is using the CCP's centenary celebrations to publicise the benefits for China from its leadership, and boost his image and contribution to China's rise, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer.
Against estimates of black wealth of Rs 300 lakh crore and black money in cash of Rs 3 lakh crore by economist Arun Kumar, the PMGKY numbers fall short by a huge margin.
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During April-February, the index of industrial production, a measure of factory activity, declined 0.1 per cent compared with a 0.9 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 2012-13.
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